The news from the political world in the United States is as volatile and unpredictable as ever as potential candidates begin to lay the groundwork for the next presidential campaign. That list could include everyone from former President Donald Trump to Vice President Kamala Harris, who inspires fierce supporters and even fierce opposition. Ten reasons each why Trump or Harris could win the next election
Why Trump Might Win
1. Strong Base of Support
Donald Trump has a very loyal base that remains committed to the America First Agenda. His ability to mobilize this base has marked his political career. Most of his followers are still carried away and able to vote based on his concept of the country.
How Americans are feeling about the country
2. Economic Track Record
Under his presidency, the economy experienced some growth, with high stock market performance and a relatively low unemployment rate. If this economy happens to be good in November 2024, many voters could interpret that as a 'Joe can do that again,' especially when the Fed is starting to be in charge of the economy.
3. Media Savvy
Trump's brilliance is staying a front-page story. He has done this very well, with the aid of the Internet and his use of social media. He's more than capable of dominating headlines, guaranteeing that he remains a relevant part of the national conversation.
The economy is the most important issue to voters
% of registered voters who say each issue is very important to their vote
Harris supporters
Trump supporters
All voters
Overall Voters: 81% say the economy is very important. Among Trump Supporters: 93% prioritise the economy, 82% immigration, and 76% violent crime. Among Harris Supporters: 76% prioritise health care, 73% Supreme Court appointments, 68% the economy, and 67% abortion.
4. Law and Order Messaging
Many voters, however, fear crime and unrest, making Trump-style law and order seem appealing. This messaging strategy works, especially with voters who prioritize safety and security.
5. Outsider Appeal
Trump is still playing outsider: he is still portraying himself as an anti-establishment candidate despite being a former president. Part of its popularity has stemmed from its appeal to anti-establishment sentiments, a powerful motivator among voters who feel alienated from traditional political structures.
Why Harris Might Win
1. Historical Significance
Kamala Harris became the first female, female black, female Asian, and female vice president of the United States. Her presidential candidacy made history, and many voters were enthused to continue the representation trend.
2. Intense Commitment to Social Justice
Harris has long championed issues such as criminal justice reform and access to healthcare. Her strong commitment to these issues is in line with the top priorities of many progressive voters looking for broad, meaningful policy change.
3. Work Experience and Achievements
Harris: With a long political resume, Harris served as a U.S. Senator and Vice President. Her accomplishments and positions of leadership lend her credibility and show her ability to lead nationally.
4. Coalition Building
The ability to coalition-build across communities — as Harris has done is a key presidential skill. She could represent the key to uniting disparate factions of the Democratic Party and hold the potential to win.
5. Youthful Appeal and Energy
Harris' energy and reliability could be a considerable boon, especially among young voters. Focusing on the younger demographics and highlighting their issues like climate change and student debt could potentially strengthen her position among these coveted voting bases.
Ad spending in the swing states
Where the Harris and Trump campaigns are spending most on ads
The data shows that the Harris campaign has outspent Trump in all seven swing states, with the most money being spent by both campaigns in Pennsylvania ($99.4m for Harris v $89.4m for Trump)
Conclusion
Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris make strong arguments for why they could win the next presidential election. For all we know, Harris is exactly right as seen through the lens of history, social change, and justice. However, when viewed through the lens of Trump's never-wavering base and his economic credentials, it does show the uphill battle and the all-time challenge that Harris has to fight if she hopes to win in a general election.
In the end, it will come down to how each candidate speaks to the aspirations and fears of American voters. Who can help bring Americans together through these unscrutinized election times, as the US is a very different nation than it once was just a few years ago? Whatever the outcome, the next presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most interesting and important in years.
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